Predicting and Preventing a "Dry Date" in South Central Texas

Predicting and Preventing a Dry Date in South Central Texas (“SCT”)?

Kenzie Yoder and Maria Reyes

Budget: $4865

            According to the to the Texas Water Development Board’s 2006 South Central Texas Regional Water Plan Executive Summary, projected growth in population will result in shortages of the municipal water supplies for “562,264 (23 percent) of the projected 2,460,599 population in 2010, 1,165,034 (35 percent) of the projected 3,292,970 population in 2030, and 1,954,807 (45 percent) of the projected 4,297,786 population in 2060”.  There is an ongoing struggle between city growth and available resources to sustain that growth.  Our students are apathetic and need to be more aware of their local surroundings and this serious issue that faces SCT.

            In order to address this problem, Algebra II and Chemistry students will investigate the possibility of a water shortage in Texas.  The students will have to project a year in which there will be a shortage and then come up with a solution to postpone the “dry date” or prevent it altogether.  They will take into account rainfall history, population increase, water consumption, water sources, conservation methods, and water quality.  At the end of the project they will write a letter to the community addressing the water crisis and their solution to it.  The students will also be required to participate in a poster session where they will share their findings with the community.

            The goal of this project is to make students into educated and active citizens who see science and math as keys to understanding the connections between humanity and the environment that we occupy.  The anticipated outcome is that students, parents, local city officials, and the general public will be made aware of this “crisis” that SCT faces.

Project Description

            The Predicting and Preventing a Central Texas “Dry Date” Project  will begin with an introduction to the problem, followed by benchmark lessons on data collection and representation, mathematical relationships and modeling, and water properties and quality.  Students will then use these skills in their Algebra II class as they research past population growth, water consumption and water supply to predict a theoretical “dry date”.  The students will prepare a presentation which will include a good graphical representation of the data, best-fit models of the data, and their predictions about the future water supply based on the models they chose.  Meanwhile, in their Chemistry class, students will be learning about the properties of water and water quality.  They will also research possible ways to conserve water in everyday life to ensure its presence in the future.  Each student will complete the project by writing a letter to the community and its leaders summarizing Central Texas population growth, its affects on the water supply, and a theoretical dry date if water consumption per person does not decrease.   They will also have to prepare a poster presentation sharing their findings and conservation methods. 

Project Rationale

            The population in Texas is growing at an exciting but alarming rate.  While Texas is a big state with many resources, a population increase like this in the South Central Texas Region (“the Region”) could leave thousands without water in the future.  This is not a distant future, but a future that today’s students will have to experience, deal with and find solutions for.  According to the Texas Water Development Board, “The population of the South Central Texas Region was estimated at about 2.0 million in 2000 and is projected to grow to about 4.3 million in 2060.” [1]   This level of population growth cannot be sustained on the water resources that are currently available to the Region today.  According to the Texas Water Development Board:

“In year 2010, needs (shortages) are about 156,600 acft/yr, in 2030 the projected need is about 256,430 acft/yr, and in 2060 the projected need for drought of record conditions is about 416,850 acft/yr…… Compared to the projected growth in population, the region does not have available municipal water supplies for 562,264 (23 percent) of the projected 2,460,599 population in 2010, 1,165,034 (35 percent) of the projected 3,292,970 population in 2030, and 1,954,807 (45 percent) of the projected 4,297,786 population in 2060.” [2]

These alarming predictions will require planning and action from today’s students.  Through the projects proposed herein, students will become more aware of the lack of resources in the Region, learn how their lives will be affected by this problem and be given an opportunity to come up with a plan for conserving water to help combat this serious issue.  In addition to the environmental lessons students will gain from these projects, they will also learn math, statistics and chemistry concepts that equip them with tools for collecting and analyzing data and drawing conclusions in everyday life.

Potential Impact

            Through these projects, students will be made aware of this serious environmental issue facing Central Texas which is the lack of water resources to sustain the level of growth.  This issue will depend on this generation’s ideas and actions for a solution.  By having students learn the impact of our region’s water crisis, they are given the chance to start making changes in their lives today to help conserve this precious natural resource for tomorrow.  Students will tell their families and friends about the lack of water and will hopefully encourage others to make changes in their lives as well.  These projects have a potential ripple affect which could reach hundreds of people.  This is a good beginning to a great start in this uphill battle.

            Students will not only learn environmental lessons from these projects, they will learn new concepts, in chemistry, math, and statistics.  Because of their opportunity to apply these concepts to a real world situation, they will gain a deeper understanding of water quality, exponential growth, data collection, data analysis and the uses of technology.  With this deeper understanding, comes the ability to apply these concepts to other problems which will in turn raise the students’ TAKS and classroom test scores.

Assessments

            Our main goal is to introduce and educate the students about the near future problem of a growing population and the limited water resource in order to help inform others and try to find a possible solution.  We will know if we are achieving our goal by constant benchmarks (CAT assessments, quizzes and homework) that apply to the materials learned that week.  Analysis of these benchmarks will ensure the students are grasping the underlying mathematical and chemistry concepts we are setting out for them.  We will have a major evaluation that consists of a final project which will enable the students to effectively communicate their findings and their ideas of conservation methods that can be applied to everyday life.  We will be measuring the student’s ability to work in a collaborative atmosphere as well as their success in the student-centered project.  We will constantly be monitoring all groups and documenting their progress.

Project Calendar’s

MATH

CHEMISTRY

Budget

Needs:

Matching Funds: